Four Kinds of SaaS in the AI Era

Mapping SaaS Valuations by Coordination Complexity & AI Revenue Exposure
AI AS CORE REVENUE DRIVER →
⚡ AI-Native Infrastructure
Powers AI workloads directly. Benefits from adoption wave.
Avg −1%
DDOG−5%
SNOW−5%
MDB+37%
CFLT+10%
TWLO−42%
🔄 Platform Transformers
Big installed bases betting on AI pivot. Market is skeptical.
Avg −47%
CRM−44%
NOW−55%
WDAY−42%
INTU−35%
HUBS−71%
ADBE−44%
TEAM−70%
ZM−18%
🛡️ Domain Defenders
Vertical expertise plus compliance moats. AI is a feature, not the product.
Avg −18%
CRWD−15%
PANW−25%
ZS−30%
VEEV−15%
OKTA−6%
In Transition
Coordinates work with limited AI moat. Rethinking what they're for next.
Avg −58%
ASAN−69%
MNDY−75%
DOCU−31%
BILL−58%
COORDINATION COMPLEXITY →
AI-Native Infra
Platform Transformers
Domain Defenders
In Transition

The Paradox

Self-built software declined from 30% to 15% over 30 years. Even as dev tools improved every decade, companies outsourced more. A 10% price drop leads to roughly 20% more spending. The demand-side moat holds.

The Shift

The top 1% of engineers now ship 10x to 100x more than they could three years ago. Small AI-native teams have organized around that leverage early.