The Software Repricing Matrix

Mapping SaaS Valuations by Coordination Complexity & AI Revenue Exposure
AI AS CORE REVENUE DRIVER →
⚡ AI-Native Infrastructure
Powers AI workloads directly — benefits from adoption wave
Avg −1%
DDOG−5%
SNOW−5%
MDB+37%
CFLT+10%
🔄 Platform Transformers
Big installed bases betting on AI pivot — market is skeptical
Avg −48%
CRM−44%
NOW−55%
WDAY−42%
INTU−35%
HUBS−71%
🛡️ Domain Defenders
Vertical expertise + compliance moats — AI is a feature, not the product
Avg −18%
CRWD−15%
PANW−25%
ZS−30%
VEEV−15%
OKTA−6%
⚠️ Disruption Zone
Coordinates human work with limited AI moat — most exposed
Avg −51%
TEAM−70%
ASAN−69%
MNDY−75%
ADBE−44%
DOCU−31%
ZM−18%
TWLO−42%
BILL−58%
COORDINATION COMPLEXITY →
AI-Native Infra
Platform Transformers
Domain Defenders
Disruption Zone

The Paradox

Self-built software declined from 30% → 15% over 30 years — even as dev tools improved every decade, companies outsourced more. A 10% price drop → 20% more spending. The demand-side moat holds.

The Real Threat

The threat isn't enterprises building their own tools. It's AI-native startups shipping with 2–3 people what used to take 50. The question: does the org need to be 5,000 people — or five?